Why The Broncos are making the right move w/ Dumerville
It came as somewhat of a surprise to just about everyone when the Broncos asked Elvis Dumerville to take a pay cut or be cut.
He still produced the last 2 years to the tune of 20 sacks.
But apparently he was the number 33 ranked 4-3 defensive end. $12 million is too much money for that.
Dumerville a camp has turned the Broncos down and they’re choosing the wrong year to do so. Here’s why:
1. Draft: The NFL draft is riddled with pass rushing defensive ends and linebackers who can pin their ears back and get to the QB.
Why invest $12 million a guy when you could potentially get similar or slightly better production for $10 million less?
As there has been an aerial explosion as the league becomes more and more pass first, there are many more opportunities to get to the QB.
It’s no coincidence that there were 3 players this past year with the potential of breaking Strahans record.
There are also plenty of young up in coming pass rushers producing sacks as role players.
This draft showcases players like Ezekiel ansah, barkevious mingo, dion Jordan and bjorn Werner. Those are just first round guys. This is one of the deepest drafts in years so there are plenty of bargains in later rounds.
2. Von Miller: Von miller is a potential defensive player of the year candidate every year now. He’s a guy you can build around and is becoming a defensive leader.
It makes no sense paying Dumerville $12 million while you’re at the same time paying Von miller much less. It’s also clearing room for the long term since miller will command top dollar.
Look at it this way. If you’ve got Von miller rushing the other side, he’s getting double teamed, which leaves more one on one situations for dumerville.
If that’s the case then dumerville should be producing more sacks. He’s also a liability against the run. It’s the same reason I wouldn’t sign cliff avril. Avril had 10 sacks, which is ok, but he also had ndamokung Suh and Gerald McCoy taking up double teams. Avril should be pushing 15-16 sacks a year because in theory he should be getting one on one more.
Same with dumerville. His sacks have gone down since he signed the contract and Von miller has come to town.
3. Free agency: there are plenty of decent pass rushers available for much less than $12 million a year. Dwight freeney is one everyone is linking to Denver because of manning.
It’s ironic because dumerville has always been a poor mans freeney. They’re both under sized ( freeney is 6’1 and dumerville is 5’11) have incredibly long arms and are reasonably fast. Freeney runs a 4.4 and dumerville close to a 4.7.
Then theres John abraham, and osi umenorya. Yeah they’re a little older but pass rushers play til around 37-38. I wouldn’t touch avril or Kruger because teams are about to over pay for them but Dumervilles value is dropping fast.
Freeney should come at a reasonable price and should still have a couple 10–12 sack seasons left in his tank.
4. Contender: every player wants a chance to play for a contender. The Broncos has a very good shot to go deep into the playoffs the next 2-3 years and potentially play in a Super Bowl and win it all.
The Broncos essentially will drive down the price of any player towards the end of their career who wants a chance at a ring. A guy like freeney and Abraham have already made millions. They may take less just for another shot at a ring.
Osi has been complaining for years. He already has 2 rings but who can argue with one more? He’d also have an opportunity to play opposite Von miller. Osi is smart enough to know that the more pass rushers he has around him the more isolation situations he’ll have.
I’m not saying they will take less money but the Broncos have the leverage here.
Conclusion: Dumervilles agent is giving him horrible advice. He the Broncos cut him he will no doubt find a team but no one is going to pay him $12 million. All the teams drafting in the top 15 have a shot at a blue chip pass rusher for a lot less than they’d have to pay dumerville.
So why would they pay him $12 million? Then there are several defensive ends on the market. The top 5 defensive ends will take about $50-$70 million off the market.
This is also a cornerback rich free agency period. Once teams start signing them that will take another $100 million off the market.
So how big of a piece of pie does that leave him? A lot less than $12 million.
No one is prepared to pay him $12 million. Not only that the desperate teams who will pay him close to it aren’t playoff contenders and are re-building. Dumerville also risks the chance of spending the rest of his days on a mediocre dysfunctional isquad.
At the end of the day the broncos have the upper hand and Dumerville could potentially make a career changing move for the worst. Dumervilles real market value is Round $6 million.
This is one of the last products of McDaniels complete dismantling of an NFL team and John Elway is trying to clean it up. The Broncos have over paid Dumerville for the past 2 years. They have too many options to pay him $12 million.
It’s an agents job to accurately assess the market for his players and in this situation he has failed.